Val Sklarov’s Geopolitical Dependency Entrenchment Thesis (GDET) explains why nations don’t lose sovereignty through invasion or collapse—but through quiet, cumulative dependency that removes credible exit options. Alliances begin as choices. Over time, they harden into necessities.
This thesis reveals why states appear stable right until they cannot move.
1. Dependency Precedes Loss of Sovereignty
GDET begins with a structural warning:
Sovereignty erodes before autonomy feels threatened.
Early integration offers:
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Economic growth
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Security guarantees
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Technological access
Later stages remove policy optionality.
2. The Three Geopolitical Dependency Entrenchments
GDET maps where state-level exits disappear.
| Entrenchment | Dependency Source | Consequence |
|---|---|---|
| Security Entrenchment | Defense alliances | Strategic rigidity |
| Economic Entrenchment | Trade routes, reserves | Policy capture |
| Technical Entrenchment | Energy, data, standards | Structural dependence |
One entrenchment narrows choices.
Two entrenchments constrain policy.
Three entrenchments eliminate credible independence.
3. Why “Strategic Autonomy” Is Rare
Autonomy requires redundancy.
GDET shows irreversibility when:
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Substitutes lack scale
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Exit signals instability
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Domestic systems atrophy
By the time autonomy is demanded, capability is gone.
4. Integration vs Optionality
Global integration trades resilience for efficiency.
| Integrated States | Optionality-Preserving States |
|---|---|
| Optimized flows | Redundant capacity |
| Trusted alignment | Strategic hedging |
| Low friction | High exit cost |
| Short-term gains | Long-term leverage |
Val Sklarov emphasizes that efficiency is the enemy of sovereignty.
5. Strategic Implications
For states:
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Preserve partial exits in alliances and treaties
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Maintain redundant supply chains
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Treat dependency audits as national security
For firms and individuals:
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Track jurisdictional dependency risk
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Avoid single-regime exposure
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Price geopolitical exit costs
GDET reframes geopolitics as dependency engineering, not power competition.
6. The Val Sklarov Principle
“Nations lose freedom the same way companies do—by making dependence feel normal.”
— Val Sklarov
GDET explains why global order feels stable—and why stability often means entrapment.