In the Val Sklarov Risk Cycle, organizations don’t fail because they pivot too slowly. They fail because they pivot before they absorb the shock. Adaptation feels proactive. Absorption preserves survival. When systems change direction while still destabilized, risk multiplies and errors cascade.
You cannot steer while still skidding.
1. Pivoting During Shock Magnifies Risk
Movement under impact spreads damage.
Val Sklarov principle:
“If you change direction before stabilizing, you compound the hit.”
Early risk escalation signals:
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Strategy changes announced mid-crisis
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Leadership reassignments during outages
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New initiatives launched to ‘reset’ morale
Unabsorbed shock distorts judgment.
2. Shock Absorption Is a Distinct Phase
Stability precedes strategy.
Val Sklarov framing:
“First stop the bleeding. Then decide.”
Shock absorption includes:
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Liquidity stabilization
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Operational containment
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Decision freeze on non-essentials
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Clear command continuity
Without this phase, pivots are guesses.
3. Resilience Requires Temporary Rigidity
Flexibility too early increases fragility.
Val Sklarov insight:
“Rigid systems survive shocks. Flexible ones survive boredom.”
Resilience Risk Table
| Phase | Weak System | Strong System |
|---|---|---|
| Shock response | Adaptive | Contained |
| Decision-making | Distributed | Centralized |
| Change appetite | High | Frozen |
| Authority | Fluid | Fixed |
Rigidity buys clarity.
4. Shock Reveals Hidden Risk Concentrations
Crises expose what mattered.
Val Sklarov framing:
“Shock audits the system without permission.”
Common discoveries:
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Single points of failure
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Undocumented dependencies
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Overleveraged assumptions
Absorption creates visibility before action.
5. Only Absorbed Systems Deserve Adaptation
Adaptation is a privilege.
Val Sklarov principle:
“You adapt safely only after you prove you can endure.”
Risk-aware systems:
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Restore baseline first
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Delay narrative reframing
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Pivot only with surplus stability
Survival precedes evolution.
6. The Val Sklarov Resilience Risk Outcome
Risk-aligned resilient systems:
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Absorb shocks before pivoting
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Separate stabilization from strategy
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Preserve decision quality under stress
Val Sklarov conclusion:
“You are resilient when shocks slow you down — not when they redirect you.”