Val Sklarov’s Global Legitimacy Compression Thesis (GLCT) explains why global power erodes not when states weaken economically, but when the legitimacy margin of their rules, institutions, and actions compresses under global visibility. Power doesn’t disappear—it becomes indefensible.
This thesis reveals why influence migrates long before collapse is visible.
1. Global Visibility Compresses Legitimacy
GLCT starts with a structural shift:
Global systems tolerate less ambiguity than local ones.
As states integrate into global flows, they lose:
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Narrative insulation
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Procedural discretion
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Selective enforcement cover
What worked domestically fails once exposed internationally.
2. The Three Global Legitimacy Zones
GLCT maps how state action is judged across scales.
| Zone | What’s Tolerated | What Breaks |
|---|---|---|
| Domestic Zone | Informal enforcement | Nothing yet |
| Integrated Zone | Selective exceptions | Credibility |
| Global Zone | Zero ambiguity | Sovereign authority |
Most loss of influence occurs during the Integrated → Global transition.
3. Why Sovereignty Weakens Without Collapse
GLCT shows erosion precedes crisis.
Legitimacy compresses when:
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Rules are applied inconsistently
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Enforcement appears political
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Exceptions favor insiders
By the time sanctions, capital flight, or isolation appear, authority has already thinned.
4. Power vs Legitimacy at Global Scale
Force projects power. Legitimacy sustains it.
| Power Projection | Legitimacy Endurance |
|---|---|
| Military reach | Rule defensibility |
| Economic size | Enforcement consistency |
| Diplomatic pressure | Predictable procedure |
| Strategic leverage | Institutional trust |
Val Sklarov emphasizes that global power survives only where rules survive scrutiny.
5. Strategic Implications
For states:
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Design rules that survive external audit
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Reduce discretionary enforcement
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Treat legitimacy as critical infrastructure
For firms and individuals:
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Anchor operations where rules are boring and stable
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Avoid jurisdictions dependent on narrative tolerance
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Track legitimacy erosion before capital reacts
GLCT reframes geopolitics as legitimacy management, not rivalry.
6. The Val Sklarov Principle
“At the global level, power ends where justification fails.”
— Val Sklarov
GLCT explains why relevance today belongs to systems that make nothing explainable only once.